Fact, or Fiction? Weather Edition

There’s a chill in the air, the trees are bare, and your fields are resting. Winter has crested, and your planning is in full swing. But what does 2023 have in store for us? Is it really snowing less than it used to? Is winter truly the most predictable season? And will La Niña stick around for the fourth year in a row? What’s a fact, and what’s fiction?

Winter is actually the least predictable season, due to the “waviness” in the atmosphere. Yes, you read that right – the atmosphere is full of literal waves, created by the differential heating effect of the sun. These imbalances in pressure and temperature essentially “carry” the weather by driving weather patterns around the globe. Think of it like the waves in the ocean — one wave affects all of the water around it, pushing and pulling other waves towards or away from the shore. In the winter, we see a much wavier system with the tendency to fluctuate much more often and react more drastically. So, while we may be able to see a storm coming or a front moving in, it’s difficult to predict exactly how intensely or when these things will reach us. This on top of the more rapidly changing conditions makes for some pretty unpredictable months.

While we should always do everything in our power to stop the warming of the planet, continued warming will eventually begin to impact farmers’ irrigation practices. How things warm in different areas will likely result in more extreme weather first in the Midwest, which in turn may result in farmers having to more carefully irrigate their fields, especially in the south. Managing water will be a much bigger challenge than managing temperature. We saw glimpses of this already just last year, when the Mississippi River reached its lowest point in years, making irrigation difficult in many areas. 

Last year saw us through the first “triple dip” (lasting for 3 consecutive years) La Niña of the 21st century and overall was a pretty classic year. And while it seems this will continue through the beginning of 2023, it’s likely we will shift into an ENSO-neutral pattern by the end of spring. A full ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) cycle contains La Niña and El Niño as the two extreme ends of the cycle, with a “neutral” stage in between. As we trend further toward an El Niño year, we can expect increasingly less predictable conditions in the growing regions.

So what does an El Niño year mean for farmers? We can reasonably assume it will be approximately the opposite of a La Niña year. If things remain very classic, Pacific Northwest winters will likely see somewhat warmer and drier weather, while the South and Southeast will see wetter and cooler conditions. And the Midwest can expect around average rainfall, with perhaps slightly warmer temperatures. As always, it’s important to keep in mind that things are never perfectly typical or predictable, and we will continue to do our best to provide you with the most up-to-date information as we enter into this year. From all of us at Climate, Happy New Year and happy planning!